BTS Universal Market Timer Performance: Nasdaq-100

The BTS Universal Market Timer is designed to preserve as much of buy-and-hold compounding as possible while reducing volatility, drawdown depth and capital deployment.

Return

15.5% vs. 16.0%

Median CAGR

Drawdown

6.1 pp shallower

Median max drawdown

Capital

18.8 pp less

Median capital deployed

Executive summary

In this Nasdaq-100 cohort, the Timer nearly matched buy-and-hold’s strong long-term return while delivering broad defensive improvement across 88 full-result securities.

The defensive pattern held across almost the entire cohort. The Timer had the shallower max drawdown in 84 of 88 securities and lower capital deployed and lower volatility in all 88. It produced the higher CAGR in 36 of 88. The defining result is the breadth of the defensive improvement while universe-median returns remained close.

Universe scorecard

MetricBTS TimerBuy & Holdvs Buy & Hold
CAGR15.5%16.0%-0.5 pp
Max Drawdown-43.0%-49.1%6.1 pp less
Capital Deployed81.2%100.0%18.8 pp less
Volatility33.4%37.1%3.7 pp less
Sharpe Ratio0.640.63+0.01

Breadth of the effect

The defensive effect was broad across the cohort. The BTS Market Timer had the shallower max drawdown in 84 of 88 securities and lower capital deployed and lower volatility in all 88. It also produced the higher CAGR in 36 of 88 securities, while universe-median return nearly matched buy-and-hold at 15.5% versus 16.0%. Buy-and-hold led 52 individual securities on CAGR, so return leadership was more mixed than the defensive result. That combination maps directly to the performance side of the BTS Market Timer’s design objective: preserve long-term compounding while reducing drawdown, volatility, and capital exposure.

MetricBTS advantageShare of cohortMedian vs Buy & Hold
CAGR36 of 8840.9%-0.5 pp
Max Drawdown84 of 8895.5%4.8 pp less
Capital Deployed88 of 88100.0%18.8 pp less
Volatility88 of 88100.0%3.4 pp less
Sharpe Ratio51 of 8858.0%+0.02

Where the BTS Market Timer added the most value

Shopify is the clearest example of both sides of the design objective appearing together. The BTS Market Timer produced a 57.6% CAGR versus 24.0% for buy-and-hold while reducing max drawdown from -84.8% to -48.5%. Elsewhere, the strongest return and drawdown improvements were spread across different securities, which reinforces how varied the stock-level outcomes were inside this cohort.

Largest CAGR advantages

StockCompanyBTS TimerBuy & Holdvs Buy & Hold
SHOPShopify57.6%24.0%+33.6 pp
CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings24.1%16.4%+7.7 pp
GOOGAlphabet29.4%22.0%+7.4 pp
ADSKAutodesk18.2%11.1%+7.1 pp
WDAYWorkday17.0%10.2%+6.8 pp

Largest max drawdown improvements

StockCompanyBTS TimerBuy & Holdvs Buy & Hold
SHOPShopify-48.5%-84.8%36.3 pp less
NFLXNetflix-45.5%-75.9%30.4 pp less
MSTRStrategy-43.6%-70.9%27.3 pp less
SNPSSynopsys-26.3%-49.1%22.8 pp less
TERTeradyne-50.8%-72.3%21.5 pp less

Where Buy & Hold had the largest return advantage

Tesla is the clearest exception to the cohort’s broader defensive pattern. Buy-and-hold’s largest CAGR advantage was in Tesla, at 55.7% versus 34.6% for the BTS Market Timer, and Tesla’s BTS max drawdown was also deeper at -66.0% versus -60.6%. The other largest return differences were materially smaller. These cases show the cost side of the trade-off: the BTS Market Timer can participate less fully in upside when a security compounds strongly through periods the model treats more cautiously.

StockCompanyBTS Timer CAGRBuy & Hold CAGRvs Buy & Hold
TSLATesla34.6%55.7%-21.1 pp
AMZNAmazon19.7%28.0%-8.3 pp
AVGOBroadcom30.9%38.9%-8.0 pp
ASMLASML Holding12.8%20.7%-7.9 pp
GILDGilead Sciences15.9%23.7%-7.8 pp

How to interpret the trade-off

Upside participation remained strong at the cohort level. The BTS Market Timer nearly matched universe-median CAGR at 15.5% versus 16.0% while the defensive improvements remained broad. Buy-and-hold had the higher CAGR in 52 of 88 individual securities, so the return trade-off still varied meaningfully stock by stock. Shopify shows the favorable end of that range, with a large return and drawdown advantage, while Tesla shows the opposite case, where buy-and-hold had a substantial return advantage and the BTS max drawdown was deeper.

Capital can remain deployed even when conditions turn defensive. Under Natural Sell logic, the BTS Market Timer is designed not to realize a price loss relative to accepted average cost basis. That rule can extend holding periods and keep capital committed longer after conditions weaken. It helps explain why median capital deployed remained substantial at 81.2% even though it was lower than buy-and-hold.

Forced non-Natural events, such as delisting liquidation, are separate exceptions.

How the results are calculated

Stock-level Typical. For each security, Typical is the median result across all eligible rolling 5-year periods. Each period spans 60 complete calendar months and advances one month at a time.

Universe scorecard. The scorecard reports the median of the stock-level Typical values across the 88 securities with full results.

Matched comparison. For each security, the BTS Market Timer and the buy-and-hold benchmark begin on the same backtest start, defined as the first eligible BTS Market Timer Buy. Both use the same rolling-period boundaries. The buy-and-hold benchmark uses the total-return benchmark series specified in BTS Methodology. For why this matched benchmark is the relevant comparison, see How to Choose the Right Benchmark.

Open positions. Open positions remain in performance at market value through June 30, 2026. Positions still open at the cutoff are excluded only from completed-trade counts.

Coverage. The five-metric scorecard and breadth calculations include only securities with full results. Limited history means a security has an eligible backtest start but fewer than 60 complete eligible months, so no canonical Typical values are reported. No result means no eligible BTS Market Timer Buy occurred, so no matched performance comparison is reported.

Study design. This is a constituent-level study, not a backtest of an investable Nasdaq-100 portfolio. Each security is tested independently, and universe statistics summarize security-level results. The current Nasdaq-100 cohort is used; historical index membership is not reconstructed.

Universe exception. FER is omitted because of incomplete or problematic historical daily data. It is excluded from cohort counts, scorecards, breadth calculations, trade summaries, and appendices.

Trade activity context

Trade activity is secondary context. Performance results are calculated from daily account values, not by averaging completed trades.

Trade activity measureNasdaq-100 cohort
Completed trades analyzed7,961
Securities with at least one completed trade97 of 101
Median completed trades per cohort security76.0
Median completed-trade duration12 daily bars
Median starting Position Size100.0%
Trades starting at 100.0% Position Size73.1%
Trades starting at 50.0% Position Size26.9%

Related BTS Universal Market Timer research

Appendix A: constituent return and drawdown results

Appendices A and B include the 88 securities with full results. Nine limited-history securities and four securities with no result are excluded.

TickerCompanyStartCAGRMax DD
BTSB&HBTSB&H
AAPLApple1991-07-0121.9%25.5%-40.8%-49.8%
ADBEAdobe1991-07-0118.7%18.3%-58.2%-60.0%
ADIAnalog Devices1991-07-0112.9%17.1%-41.3%-45.0%
ADPAutomatic Data Processing1991-07-0111.4%15.7%-29.4%-35.7%
ADSKAutodesk1991-07-0118.2%11.1%-53.0%-53.1%
AEPAmerican Electric Power1991-07-018.5%8.9%-32.7%-32.9%
ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals2005-11-2920.3%17.0%-71.1%-71.2%
AMATApplied Materials1991-07-0113.6%18.5%-51.4%-60.6%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices1991-07-017.9%6.1%-75.5%-76.8%
AMGNAmgen1991-07-0114.5%12.2%-31.5%-32.8%
AMZNAmazon1998-11-2519.7%28.0%-53.3%-56.1%
ASMLASML Holding1996-10-0112.8%20.7%-41.0%-56.9%
AVGOBroadcom2011-02-2330.9%38.9%-28.6%-41.2%
AXONAxon Enterprise2002-12-1631.4%30.8%-56.2%-58.6%
BKNGBooking Holdings2000-09-2620.3%22.8%-44.8%-47.8%
BKRBaker Hughes Company1991-07-015.6%4.4%-51.4%-58.1%
CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners1991-07-0111.9%12.4%-47.0%-47.6%
CDNSCadence Design Systems1991-07-0121.3%21.4%-47.4%-58.1%
CMCSAComcast Corporation1991-07-019.8%10.4%-39.7%-50.1%
COSTCostco1991-07-0114.6%17.6%-25.9%-31.8%
CPRTCopart1995-09-2617.5%20.4%-37.0%-43.8%
CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings2020-12-1524.1%16.4%-48.8%-67.7%
CSCOCisco Systems1991-08-169.4%9.9%-41.4%-49.8%
CSXCSX1991-07-0112.9%13.4%-38.9%-40.5%
CTASCintas1991-07-0117.9%21.6%-40.4%-44.7%
DDOGDatadog2021-04-2125.1%20.1%-48.2%-68.1%
DXCMDexCom2006-10-3029.8%34.7%-53.6%-58.2%
EXCExelon1991-07-017.5%10.5%-32.7%-38.8%
FANGDiamondback Energy2014-04-2811.9%7.2%-85.4%-86.4%
FASTFastenal1991-07-0117.7%17.3%-35.2%-34.8%
FTNTFortinet2011-05-2326.6%29.3%-38.3%-38.3%
GILDGilead Sciences1993-07-2215.9%23.7%-35.6%-43.2%
GOOGAlphabet2015-10-1429.4%22.0%-31.7%-44.6%
GOOGLAlphabet2006-03-0719.6%19.9%-26.7%-30.9%
HONHoneywell1991-07-0111.9%11.0%-42.3%-43.0%
IDXXIDEXX Laboratories1993-01-0513.6%17.4%-42.6%-47.5%
INTCIntel1991-07-017.0%8.5%-39.7%-50.5%
INTUIntuit1994-09-1219.2%18.9%-36.5%-43.6%
ISRGIntuitive Surgical2001-12-2124.2%23.4%-40.5%-49.1%
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper2009-10-2714.1%20.9%-27.3%-28.3%
KHCKraft Heinz2017-01-20-2.3%-2.6%-29.4%-41.6%
KLACKLA1991-07-0119.5%22.0%-56.2%-62.3%
LINLinde2020-06-128.7%14.8%-15.8%-22.8%
LITELumentum Holdings2017-03-087.1%2.3%-61.1%-66.9%
LRCXLam Research1991-07-0120.7%18.8%-63.6%-68.5%
MARMarriott International1999-09-3012.8%14.7%-45.5%-46.2%
MCHPMicrochip Technology1994-09-2016.0%14.5%-49.9%-53.6%
MDLZMondelez International2002-12-199.4%8.8%-28.3%-29.7%
MELIMercadoLibre2009-02-1821.5%28.1%-43.3%-46.2%
METAMeta Platforms2013-11-1915.4%20.9%-61.6%-62.0%
MNSTMonster Beverage1991-09-0615.6%22.0%-36.7%-50.4%
MPWRMonolithic Power Systems2006-06-0625.9%31.3%-34.9%-46.0%
MRVLMarvell Technology2002-01-086.4%11.5%-46.4%-61.9%
MSFTMicrosoft1991-07-0122.4%19.7%-24.3%-37.1%
MSTRStrategy1999-12-096.5%10.2%-43.6%-70.9%
MUMicron Technology1991-07-0111.0%12.2%-58.2%-73.8%
NBISNebius Group2012-11-2814.3%14.4%-43.3%-51.3%
NFLXNetflix2003-12-0832.9%38.5%-45.5%-75.9%
NVDANVIDIA2000-07-2532.1%28.8%-56.0%-66.3%
NXPINXP Semiconductors2012-02-1318.5%14.8%-48.1%-53.3%
ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line1993-05-0723.9%25.2%-37.7%-37.7%
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive1994-10-2120.6%20.4%-41.5%-42.0%
PANWPalo Alto Networks2014-01-2727.0%28.3%-48.6%-48.0%
PAYXPaychex1991-07-0111.6%14.5%-39.2%-44.2%
PCARPACCAR1991-07-0114.4%15.3%-37.4%-40.8%
PDDPDD Holdings2020-01-286.6%4.2%-86.2%-87.4%
PEPPepsiCo1991-07-019.8%10.6%-28.1%-29.1%
PYPLPayPal Holdings2017-01-20-3.4%-7.4%-82.6%-83.7%
QCOMQUALCOMM1993-06-2113.9%12.6%-40.4%-45.1%
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals1992-09-2814.7%12.7%-57.6%-57.9%
ROPRoper Technologies1993-08-2417.1%16.3%-37.3%-44.3%
ROSTRoss Stores1991-07-0120.1%21.5%-46.4%-46.5%
SBUXStarbucks1993-12-3015.1%17.6%-40.7%-43.7%
SHOPShopify2016-11-2957.6%24.0%-48.5%-84.8%
SNPSSynopsys1993-08-2417.7%11.8%-26.3%-49.1%
STXSeagate Technology Holdings2004-06-1513.3%15.5%-58.8%-61.8%
TERTeradyne1991-07-0112.0%14.4%-50.8%-72.3%
TMUST-Mobile US2008-10-2820.4%20.0%-32.6%-32.0%
TRIThomson Reuters2003-12-108.4%10.1%-34.1%-35.4%
TSLATesla2011-12-2934.6%55.7%-66.0%-60.6%
TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software1998-11-2517.4%12.4%-56.1%-56.1%
TXNTexas Instruments1991-07-0116.0%15.6%-43.4%-48.6%
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals1993-01-2119.2%15.5%-54.1%-55.4%
WBDWarner Bros. Discovery2007-01-26-3.4%-2.5%-55.2%-61.3%
WDAYWorkday2014-04-2817.0%10.2%-49.1%-55.9%
WDCWestern Digital1991-07-018.8%11.8%-66.2%-70.5%
WMTWalmart1991-07-018.2%9.5%-26.6%-29.7%
XELXcel Energy1991-07-019.2%9.7%-23.7%-29.3%

Appendix B: constituent capital, volatility, and Sharpe ratio results

Buy-and-hold capital deployed is 100% by construction and is omitted from the table.

TickerBTS CapitalVolatilitySharpe
BTSB&HBTSB&H
AAPL73.3%33.9%38.5%0.850.89
ADBE81.2%39.2%39.8%0.620.64
ADI75.1%30.5%35.0%0.680.65
ADP78.2%22.1%24.9%0.690.70
ADSK82.7%38.0%41.4%0.640.47
AEP83.6%18.8%21.9%0.510.50
ALNY83.8%52.4%56.4%0.640.55
AMAT74.9%36.7%43.0%0.610.65
AMD97.2%59.8%60.2%0.430.42
AMGN84.3%26.9%29.1%0.680.56
AMZN82.2%35.1%35.9%0.650.78
ASML75.2%34.9%40.5%0.570.70
AVGO72.8%32.2%36.0%1.051.09
AXON86.0%46.3%50.2%0.830.79
BKNG73.8%32.8%37.0%0.780.78
BKR91.2%33.6%41.6%0.340.31
CCEP87.6%28.3%30.7%0.540.56
CDNS97.2%37.5%40.4%0.780.74
CMCSA86.5%31.4%35.2%0.500.48
COST74.3%23.5%26.5%0.750.87
CPRT78.4%28.7%30.7%0.810.76
CRWD66.6%36.2%50.4%0.790.56
CSCO72.4%24.9%33.6%0.490.49
CSX84.3%27.4%29.8%0.610.57
CTAS78.8%27.4%29.7%0.800.79
DDOG73.4%44.9%57.9%0.720.60
DXCM76.6%41.5%47.4%0.870.86
EXC81.6%19.4%25.5%0.460.53
FANG89.1%55.1%58.5%0.500.42
FAST82.4%30.1%32.0%0.700.64
FTNT75.1%35.1%38.5%0.860.86
GILD77.1%29.0%32.1%0.680.74
GOOG73.2%26.3%31.0%1.100.79
GOOGL78.2%25.3%27.0%0.960.79
HON81.4%25.8%27.2%0.580.53
IDXX85.6%31.2%32.2%0.570.64
INTC72.9%29.3%35.3%0.440.42
INTU75.4%30.7%32.9%0.780.68
ISRG71.9%29.9%35.4%0.830.75
KDP85.1%18.9%21.2%0.790.92
KHC73.7%20.9%28.5%0.000.03
KLAC82.6%38.3%41.5%0.700.72
LIN65.3%16.1%21.0%0.600.75
LITE87.8%44.8%49.4%0.380.29
LRCX83.7%45.3%46.9%0.660.63
MAR87.1%30.2%33.0%0.560.58
MCHP82.4%37.1%38.4%0.660.56
MDLZ80.0%19.4%21.4%0.550.51
MELI81.3%42.7%46.2%0.690.75
META86.6%38.9%40.2%0.620.70
MNST85.3%47.1%49.8%0.620.70
MPWR74.6%35.8%40.1%0.920.89
MRVL82.1%35.4%45.5%0.360.48
MSFT75.4%26.3%30.7%1.030.81
MSTR64.6%24.1%44.5%0.380.46
MU68.2%40.7%54.2%0.490.49
NBIS85.1%36.9%42.4%0.540.53
NFLX76.2%40.4%50.1%0.850.90
NVDA92.8%44.1%52.1%0.850.77
NXPI81.1%38.3%39.9%0.680.55
ODFL78.6%36.7%41.7%0.800.82
ORLY81.1%29.0%30.0%0.780.79
PANW85.6%33.8%37.7%0.870.85
PAYX81.3%25.3%27.8%0.650.67
PCAR84.6%28.0%30.5%0.610.63
PDD97.8%71.3%72.5%0.440.41
PEP81.5%19.9%20.8%0.640.57
PYPL89.7%41.5%43.2%0.130.05
QCOM76.6%33.8%37.1%0.630.53
REGN84.8%54.2%58.1%0.550.55
ROP74.7%25.6%27.6%0.780.64
ROST83.8%32.6%34.4%0.780.70
SBUX82.9%30.1%31.8%0.640.67
SHOP70.0%47.4%65.1%1.180.66
SNPS72.6%28.9%33.4%0.790.52
STX77.8%35.7%40.9%0.520.57
TER64.4%33.7%48.6%0.590.56
TMUS80.0%26.6%28.3%0.830.78
TRI80.1%19.2%21.4%0.580.61
TSLA83.3%54.8%59.2%0.851.04
TTWO91.8%36.9%38.2%0.580.50
TXN72.8%26.8%33.3%0.820.62
VRTX84.5%49.3%54.1%0.630.56
WBD86.4%33.2%36.8%0.060.14
WDAY81.0%35.6%39.1%0.630.44
WDC92.0%48.0%50.7%0.440.49
WMT81.0%21.0%22.3%0.520.55
XEL82.3%15.9%21.1%0.590.57