BTS Universal Market Timer: User Guide

Use this guide to read and use the BTS Universal Market Timer (UMT): the live status fields, Market Pulse meter and terminal bars, position-sizing instructions, historical playback, stock-level results, and account access. You can apply the framework to individual stocks or ETFs; historical lookup covers the symbols available in the supported BTS dataset. For the product overview, value proposition, and broader evidence, see What is the BTS Universal Market Timer?

On this page

Quick start: read the Timer in this order

  1. Check Current Pulse. This is the Timer’s current instruction. If it says HOLD, there is no action to take.
  2. Follow position sizing and any Scale In instruction. When a BUY signal is active, use the allocation shown by the Timer and apply any Scale In instruction displayed.
  3. Use the Market Pulse meter for context. Thin rungs show market progression, not a forecast or countdown. The progression can reverse quickly.
  4. Apply SELL IF PROFIT to your own cost basis. The Timer supplies the market instruction; you track your own holdings, Scale Ins, and average cost basis.

The rule to remember: a thick terminal bar is actionable only when it is highlighted with a white triangle. When the triangle appears, Current Pulse gives the exact instruction. If neither thick terminal shows a white triangle, Current Pulse remains HOLD.

BTS Universal Market Timer in a HOLD state with Recent 100 Bars enabled, showing the status row, Market Cycle graphic, Market Pulse meter, and history controls.
Figure 1. HOLD state with Recent 100 Bars enabled. Thin rungs show progression, but neither thick terminal shows a white triangle; Current Bar is the default live view.

Key rules

These rules describe the live Timer available to Free, Pro, and UltraPro accounts. All three receive the same live Timer information and instructions, including Market Pulse, Current Pulse, position sizing, and Previous Position. UltraPro additionally includes Recent 100 Bars historical playback. Historical lookup is separate from live Timer functionality: for any ticker an account is entitled to query, the same historical result is presented; account level determines only which tickers can be queried.

  1. Follow Current Pulse for the instruction. Current Phase and the Market Pulse meter provide context, but Current Pulse gives the model’s current instruction.
  2. Follow the buy-side instruction shown. Current Pulse may show BUY 50%, BUY 100%, Scale In, or BUY 100% · Scale In. A Scale In-only instruction adds to an existing half position and is not a new-position BUY instruction. Follow the exact instruction shown; do not turn a 50% instruction into a 100% position.
  3. You choose the stocks or ETFs. The Timer separates market timing from security selection. It tells you when the model is calling for equity exposure and which position-sizing instruction applies; it does not prescribe which ticker to trade. You can apply the timing framework to a stock or ETF you believe will participate in the broader BTS Market Cycle.
  4. Use Scale In to top up an existing half position. If you previously followed a BUY 50%, Scale In means buy additional shares to bring that position up to full size. If you do not already hold the half position, there is nothing to scale in.

    Scale In is based on position value, not share count. If your full position size is $2,000, BUY 50% means investing about $1,000. A later Scale In means investing about another $1,000 to bring the position to full size. Because the share price may have changed, the number of shares purchased on the Scale In may differ from the original purchase.
  5. Do not sell an ordinary UMT position at a price loss. When SELL IF PROFIT appears, apply the instruction to each position using the average cost basis you track. If a position is profitable, follow the UMT exit rule and accept an exit only at or above that cost basis. If a position is not profitable, do not sell it; keep it open and wait for a later qualifying SELL IF PROFIT. For a position that includes a prior Scale In, use the average cost basis of the combined position. Forced events such as delisting are separate exceptions.
  6. HOLD means no action instruction is currently active. Market Phase and Market Pulse may continue to change while the correct instruction remains HOLD.
  7. The Timer does not track your holdings or know your cost basis. You choose what to trade and are responsible for tracking your position size, any Scale Ins, and your average cost basis. If you begin following the Timer in the middle of a cycle, start with the current instruction rather than trying to recreate earlier trades. Apply Scale In only to an earlier half position you actually hold.

Read the status row

At the top of the timer, the Updated line tells you the latest market session included in the timer’s data. A line such as Updated 8/27/2026 · Market Close means the data has been updated through the completed market close on 8/27/2026. Use this line to confirm whether the timer includes the latest trading day.

In the default Current Bar view, the status row contains Current Phase, Current Pulse, and Previous Position. The screenshot above shows Recent 100 Bars enabled, so the third field changes to Date for the selected historical bar.

Current phase

Current Phase shows where the market sits in the broader BTS Market Cycle. The ten phase codes are B — Bottoming, Wx — Waxing, A1/A2/A3 — Ascending Levels 1–3, T — Topping, Wa — Waning, and D1/D2/D3 — Descending Levels 1–3.

Current Phase is context, not the instruction field. Whatever phase is displayed—including B or T—take action only when a thick terminal bar is highlighted with the white triangle and Current Pulse displays the corresponding instruction.

Current pulse

Current Pulse is the primary instruction field. In the full live view, it may display HOLD, BUY 50%, BUY 100%, Scale In, BUY 100% · Scale In, or SELL IF PROFIT.

HOLD means no action instruction is currently active.

Previous position

Previous Position shows the timer’s most recent prior terminal position instruction in the live Current Bar view. The display includes the phase at that prior instruction, the Current Pulse instruction, any position size shown with that instruction, and the date—for example, T · BUY 100% · 8/18/2026. HOLD and other nonterminal bars do not replace this prior terminal instruction. Previous Position describes timer history; it does not confirm what you personally hold in a brokerage account. In historical playback mode, this field changes to Date so the interface clearly distinguishes a selected historical bar from the live current state.

Use the Market Cycle graphic for context

The sine-wave graphic maps the same ten-phase BTS Market Cycle described above. Its highlighted node marks the Current Phase. Use it to see where the Timer is in the Market Cycle—not as a forecast.

The graphic is not a price chart. It does not show the market’s price level, percentage return, expected return, overbought or oversold magnitude, or the probability of a future move. It simply shows where the Timer currently sits in the Market Cycle.

Read the Market Pulse meter

The Market Pulse meter shows shorter-term directional progression. Thin rungs activate sequentially from the neutral center as movement builds, with stronger colors as the Pulse advances. The upper progression moves toward the red terminal; the lower progression moves toward the green terminal. The rungs show current progression and magnitude, not probability or a countdown. Even if every thin rung on one side is active, there is no guarantee that side will reach a terminal instruction. If market conditions change sharply, the Pulse can reverse directly from fully developed progression on one side to an instruction on the other. Because market moves vary in direction and magnitude from one session to the next, the Pulse adapts to current conditions rather than completing a fixed sequence.

The two thick endpoints are the terminal bars: red above and green below. A terminal is actionable only when it is highlighted with a white triangle. When the triangle appears, Current Pulse gives the exact instruction. If neither terminal shows a white triangle, the instruction is HOLD.

How the terminal bars work

The white triangle is the action marker. When it appears inside the upper red or lower green terminal bar, an instruction is active. Current Pulse supplies the exact instruction. Without a white triangle in either terminal, the correct instruction is HOLD.

The examples below show the white triangle on each terminal bar and the corresponding Current Pulse instruction. The lower terminal can support different buy-side instructions, so always read Current Pulse rather than inferring the instruction from the bar alone.

This is a buy-side instruction

BTS Universal Market Timer showing BUY 100% in Current Pulse with a white triangle in the lower green terminal bar.
Figure 2. The white triangle highlights the lower green terminal bar, and Current Pulse shows BUY 100%.

In this example, the white triangle on the lower green terminal confirms that an instruction is active. Current Pulse shows BUY 100%, which calls for a new full-position purchase in a stock or ETF you choose. The same terminal can accompany other buy-side instructions, so Current Pulse is authoritative.

This is a SELL IF PROFIT instruction

BTS Universal Market Timer showing SELL IF PROFIT in Current Pulse with a white triangle in the upper red terminal bar.
Figure 3. The white triangle highlights the upper red terminal bar, and Current Pulse shows SELL IF PROFIT.

A SELL IF PROFIT instruction does not mean every open position is profitable. The Timer does not know whether any position you hold is above or below your cost basis; apply SELL IF PROFIT separately to each position using the average cost basis you track.

Under the UMT historical trading methodology, a profitable SELL decision arms a persistent exit. From the following bar forward, the modeled exit occurs at the Open when the Open is at or above the accepted average cost basis. If the Open is below cost but the intraday High reaches the cost basis, the modeled exit occurs at the cost basis. If neither condition occurs, the exit remains armed and the position stays open. Once the exit is armed, no further Scale In occurs.

Under that same methodology, if the position is not profitable when SELL IF PROFIT occurs, no persistent exit is armed. The position remains open and waits for a later SELL IF PROFIT instruction. For a position that includes a prior Scale In, the profitability test uses the accepted average cost basis of the combined position. Forced events such as delisting are separate exceptions.

The four buy-side instructions

  • BUY 50%: establish a new half position.
  • BUY 100%: establish a new full position.
  • Scale In: top up existing half positions to full positions; do not add new tickers.
  • BUY 100% · Scale In: top up existing half positions to full positions and establish new full positions in different tickers.

Which stock or ETF should you buy? You choose it. The Timer supplies the timing and position-sizing instruction; it does not prescribe the ticker. Apply a fresh BUY instruction to a stock or ETF you have chosen, and apply Scale In only to an existing half position you already hold.

Scale-in details

A Scale In instruction can appear with the white triangle in the lower green terminal while a thin rung remains active. In that state, Current Pulse shows Scale In; it is not a new-position BUY instruction.

The white triangle in the thick lower green terminal confirms that an instruction is active. Always read Current Pulse for the exact instruction. Scale In adds to an existing half position; a fresh BUY instruction establishes a new position.

If you used Scale In, your cost basis changes. When a later SELL IF PROFIT instruction appears, use the average cost of the full combined position—not the price of only the first or second purchase.

Review the current bar or recent history

Current Bar is the default live view and shows the latest available timer state.

For UltraPro accounts, turning on Recent 100 Bars opens historical playback and reveals the slider and arrow controls shown near the top of this guide. Playback begins on the current bar. From there, the slider moves across the available range and the arrows step one bar at a time. At the current bar, the newer-bar control is unavailable because there is no later completed bar to display.

As you move through history, Current Phase and Current Pulse update to the selected historical bar, and Previous Position becomes Date. That change is intentional: it keeps historical context visually separate from the current live state.

Look up a stock’s historical performance

Historical performance is available to signed-in accounts. The Public view omits this section. Free opens with its one authorized ticker prefilled and its full entitled result expanded. Pro and UltraPro can query the tickers their accounts are entitled to access. Enter a ticker and select View History; capitalization is normalized automatically.

Once a ticker is entitled, the amount of historical information does not change by plan: Typical historical results, Trade history, averages, disclosures, and available links are presented the same way. If a ticker exists in the supported historical dataset but requires a higher account level, the interface identifies the level that unlocks it. A separate not-available message means the symbol is not available in that dataset.

The Default Symbol control is a browser-local convenience, not an entitlement setting. For Pro and UltraPro, it can remember a successfully entitled ticker as the local default for future visits. For Free, it is shown checked and disabled because the single authorized ticker is controlled by the Free account setting.

Typical historical results

For an available symbol, Typical historical results compares UMT with matched buy-and-hold across five metrics: CAGR, Max Drawdown, Capital Deployed, Volatility, and Sharpe Ratio.

  • CAGR: higher is better.
  • Max Drawdown: the smaller loss magnitude is better.
  • Capital Deployed: lower means less capital was typically at work.
  • Volatility: lower is better.
  • Sharpe Ratio: higher is better.

Favorable BTS values are emphasized in the interface. If the displayed values are tied, the interface does not present either side as having an advantage.

Typical historical results summarizes matched historical periods rather than one selected interval. The note below the results table describes the methodology used for the displayed comparison. It is historical context, not a forecast. For the broader testing framework, see BTS Methodology.

Trade history

The Trade history table shows individual historical UMT trades for the selected stock using BTS Buy Week, Position Size, Return, and Holding Period (Bars). Returns are actual historical returns calculated from the exact underlying price data. To protect the proprietary UMT trading logic, buy dates are reported by BTS Week and holding periods in five-bar ranges.

BTS Week is a standardized week unit BTS uses consistently across its strategies, reports, and analytical assets, including heat maps. It provides a consistent BTS time reference across those materials and should not be interpreted as an ISO calendar-week label.

Individual holding periods are shown in five-bar ranges, such as 1–5, 21–25, or 66–70. A Bar represents one daily market observation in the model. The summary row shows arithmetic averages for the visible set, such as Average — Recent 10. Its holding-period value is calculated from the exact underlying Bars for the selected trades even though individual rows are displayed in five-bar ranges.

If more than 10 trades are available, Show all trade history loads the complete history and changes the summary to Average — All Trades. Once loaded, the full table remains expanded.

In the full-history view, BTS Buy Week defaults to newest first. BTS Buy Week and Return are sortable; the first Return sort shows the highest return first, and later selections toggle direction. Position Size and Holding Period (Bars) are not sortable. Trades within the same BTS Week retain their underlying chronological order.

Cohort performance report

When a published cohort report is available for the selected stock, the interface links to that broader UMT performance report. If the stock belongs to more than one published cohort, the link uses the smallest published cohort. The report opens in a new tab so the current ticker analysis remains in place.

Performance data

For broader historical evidence, use the research pages below. Start with Turning-Point Accuracy, followed by the five index performance reports.

For a concise explanation of what those studies mean for the product’s value proposition, see What is the BTS Universal Market Timer?

Account access

Live Timer access by account level:

Access levelLive phaseMarket PulseTerminal/action detailPrevious PositionRecent 100 Bars
PublicYesWithheldWithheldWithheldNo
FreeYesFull liveYesYesNo
ProYesFull liveYesYesNo
UltraProYesFull liveYesYesYes

Free, Pro, and UltraPro receive the same live Timer information and instructions, including Market Pulse, Current Pulse, position sizing, Scale In details, and Previous Position. UltraPro’s one additional Timer function is Recent 100 Bars, a 100-bar historical time machine.

Historical lookup follows a separate access rule. For any entitled ticker, Free, Pro, and UltraPro receive the same historical result depth. What changes by account level is only which tickers are entitled: Free has one configured ticker, while Pro and UltraPro can query the tickers available to their respective account levels. Public has no historical lookup.

Home-page status card

The home page may also show a compact Market Timer status card. On desktop, it shows Current Phase, Current Pulse, and Previous Position. On mobile, it shows Current Phase and Current Pulse. It follows the same account-access rules as the main timer and is intended as a quick status summary. Use the BTS Universal Market Timer page for the full Market Cycle graphic, Market Pulse meter, Recent 100 Bars, and stock-level historical tools.

Using the Timer on mobile

On mobile, the Timer keeps the same reading order: the Updated line comes first; Current Phase, Current Pulse, and Previous remain together; and the Market Cycle graphic and Market Pulse meter stay side by side. For UltraPro accounts, the Current Bar / Recent 100 Bars control and legend follow below.

Some labels and account prompts are shortened to protect the layout. Previous Position becomes Previous; Ascending Level 1 may appear as Ascending 1; Descending Level 3 as Descending 3; and Position Size as Size. These are presentation changes only; they do not change the meaning of the data.

Common mistakes

Colored rungs are not instructions. More active rungs, stronger color, or proximity to a terminal do not create an early instruction. Only a white triangle inside a thick terminal confirms that an instruction is active; Current Pulse tells you exactly what it is.

The sine wave is not a forecast. It is a cycle-state diagram, not a price path or expected-return chart.

A white triangle on the lower green terminal can accompany different buy-side instructions. Read Current Pulse. BUY 50% opens a new half position; BUY 100% opens a new full position; Scale In tops up existing half positions only; and BUY 100% · Scale In tops up existing half positions and adds new full positions in different tickers.

A BUY instruction does not tell you which stock or ETF to buy. The Timer supplies timing and position sizing; you choose the ticker.

SELL IF PROFIT is not an unconditional instruction to liquidate every position. The Timer does not know your holdings or cost basis; apply SELL IF PROFIT to each position using the average cost basis you track. If a position is profitable, follow the exit rule. If it is not profitable, do not sell it; wait for a later SELL IF PROFIT instruction.

An account restriction is not missing data. An entitlement message means the symbol exists but requires different access; a not-available message means the supported historical dataset does not contain the symbol.

Historical results are context, not prediction. Typical historical results and Trade history describe prior outcomes under the UMT framework; they do not guarantee future results.

How to read it all together

Use the white triangle inside a thick terminal bar to confirm that an instruction is active, Current Pulse for the exact instruction, the thin rungs for progression, Current Phase and the Market Cycle graphic for broader context, and the historical tools for prior evidence. If neither terminal shows a white triangle, the instruction is HOLD. Keeping those roles separate is the key to reading the Timer correctly.