BTS Universal Market Timer Performance — Nasdaq-100
Return
16.2% vs. 15.7%
Drawdown
6.8 pp shallower
Capital
19.6 pp lower
Executive summary
Across the 89 securities with 5-year Standard results, the Nasdaq-100 shows a positive cohort-median return edge for the Timer alongside broad improvements in drawdown, capital deployment, volatility, and Sharpe Ratio.
The Timer had the higher Typical CAGR in 37 securities and trailed in 52, with no ties. It had the shallower Typical Max Drawdown in 79 of 89 securities, lower Typical Capital Deployed in all 89, lower Typical Volatility in all 89, and the higher Typical Sharpe Ratio in 51. The cohort-median return advantage therefore coexists with weaker return breadth than the headline median alone suggests.
Universe scorecard
All five rows show cohort medians of security-level 5-year Standard Typical results. The last column is the difference of those cohort medians; it is not the median of the security-level paired differences shown in the Breadth section.
| Metric | UMT | Buy & Hold | Difference of cohort medians |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 16.2% | 15.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Max Drawdown | -42.3% | -49.1% | 6.8 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 80.4% | 100.0% | 19.6 pp lower |
| Volatility | 33.4% | 37.1% | 3.7 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.65 | 0.63 | +0.02 |
Breadth of the effect
Breadth is important evidence because cohort medians can hide concentration. Across the 89 securities with 5-year Standard results, the Timer had the higher Typical CAGR in 37 and trailed in 52, with no ties. It had the shallower Typical Max Drawdown in 79, lower Typical Capital Deployed in all 89, lower Typical Volatility in all 89, and the higher Typical Sharpe Ratio in 51. The final column reports the median paired security-level difference, so it need not match the scorecard’s difference of cohort medians.
| Metric | UMT-favorable securities | Cohort share | Median paired difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 37 of 89 | 41.6% | -0.7 pp |
| Max Drawdown | 79 of 89 | 88.8% | 4.3 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 89 of 89 | 100.0% | 19.6 pp lower |
| Volatility | 89 of 89 | 100.0% | 3.5 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 51 of 89 | 57.3% | +0.02 |
Where the Timer added the most value
Shopify is the clearest overlap between the return and drawdown leaders. Its 5-year Standard Typical CAGR was 55.0% versus 24.0% for buy-and-hold, a +31.0 percentage-point advantage, while its Typical Max Drawdown improved from -84.8% to -48.5%. Nebius Group also appears among both leader sets.
Largest CAGR advantages
| Ticker | Security | UMT CAGR | Buy & Hold CAGR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | Shopify | 55.0% | 24.0% | +31.0 pp |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | 16.1% | 7.2% | +8.9 pp |
| WDAY | Workday | 18.3% | 10.2% | +8.1 pp |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | 21.6% | 15.1% | +6.5 pp |
| ADSK | Autodesk | 16.5% | 11.1% | +5.4 pp |
Largest Max Drawdown improvements
| Ticker | Security | UMT Max Drawdown | Buy & Hold Max Drawdown | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | Shopify | -48.5% | -84.8% | 36.3 pp shallower |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | -41.9% | -74.1% | 32.2 pp shallower |
| MSTR | Strategy | -39.8% | -70.9% | 31.1 pp shallower |
| NFLX | Netflix | -45.5% | -75.9% | 30.4 pp shallower |
| TER | Teradyne | -50.8% | -72.3% | 21.5 pp shallower |
Where Buy & Hold had the largest return advantage
Tesla had the largest buy-and-hold CAGR advantage in the 5-year Standard population at 18.9 percentage points, followed by Broadcom at 10.6, Amazon at 6.9, Keurig Dr Pepper at 6.7, and ASML Holding at 6.2.
| Ticker | Security | UMT CAGR | Buy & Hold CAGR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | Tesla | 36.8% | 55.7% | -18.9 pp |
| AVGO | Broadcom | 28.3% | 38.9% | -10.6 pp |
| AMZN | Amazon | 21.1% | 28.0% | -6.9 pp |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper | 14.2% | 20.9% | -6.7 pp |
| ASML | ASML Holding | 14.5% | 20.7% | -6.2 pp |
How to interpret the trade-off
Aggregation matters. Cohort-median 5-year Standard Typical CAGR was 16.2% for the Timer versus 15.7% for buy-and-hold, yet only 37 of 89 securities had a higher Timer CAGR. The defensive effect was much broader: 79 had a shallower Typical Max Drawdown, all 89 had lower Typical Capital Deployed, and all 89 had lower Typical Volatility.
Capital Deployed measures average daily position exposure. In each rolling window it is the arithmetic mean of daily position exposure. Typical values and cohort medians are calculated as described below. The 80.4% result should therefore not be read as “time in market,” a simple cash allocation, or proof that the Timer was out of the market 19.6% of the time.
The measured 5-year story is a positive cohort-median return edge paired with broad defensive improvement, but the return breadth shows that the headline median does not represent a majority-security CAGR win.
Limited-history results
This supplemental section covers 5 securities with valid 3-year Limited History results. Their Typical values are medians across eligible rolling 3-year periods and are not pooled with the 89-security 5-year Standard population.
| Metric | UMT | Buy & Hold | Difference of cohort medians |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 72.3% | 148.6% | -76.3 pp |
| Max Drawdown | -31.5% | -43.1% | 11.6 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 50.0% | 100.0% | 50.0 pp lower |
| Volatility | 41.7% | 67.4% | 25.7 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.26 | 1.53 | -0.27 |
| Metric | UMT-favorable securities | Cohort share | Median paired difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 1 of 5 | 20.0% | -66.5 pp |
| Max Drawdown | 5 of 5 | 100.0% | 9.1 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 5 of 5 | 100.0% | 50.0 pp lower |
| Volatility | 5 of 5 | 100.0% | 20.5 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1 of 5 | 20.0% | -0.11 |
The five-security 3-year Limited History cohort is small. Its Timer drawdown, capital deployment, and volatility are favorable across all five securities, while CAGR and Sharpe are lower for four of five; these results should remain clearly separate from the 5-year Standard population.
Compare UMT Results Security by Security
This report summarizes the Nasdaq-100 cohort as a whole. For ticker-by-ticker Typical historical performance and Trade History, use the BTS Universal Market Timer interface. Available securities and cohorts depend on membership access.
How the results are calculated
Security-level Typical. Standard results use the median result across all eligible rolling 5-year periods, each spanning 60 complete calendar months and advancing one month at a time. Limited History results use the same framework over eligible rolling 3-year periods spanning 36 complete calendar months.
Universe scorecard. The primary scorecard, breadth statistics, and leader/laggard rankings use only the 89 securities with 5-year Standard results. The 5 securities with valid 3-year Limited History results are summarized separately. Four additional Limited History securities without a Typical horizon and four No Result securities do not enter either Typical scorecard or breadth calculation.
Matched comparison. For each security, the Timer and the buy-and-hold benchmark begin on the same backtest start, defined as the first eligible Timer BUY. Both use the same rolling-period boundaries. The buy-and-hold benchmark uses the total-return benchmark series specified in BTS Methodology.
Open positions. Open positions remain in performance at market value through June 30, 2026. Positions still open at the cutoff are excluded only from completed-trade counts.
Coverage. The current Nasdaq-100 cohort contains 102 securities: 89 with 5-year Standard results, 5 with valid 3-year Limited History results, 4 with Limited History but no Typical result, and 4 with No Result.
Study design. This is a constituent-level study, not a backtest of an investable Nasdaq-100 portfolio. Each security is tested independently, and cohort statistics summarize security-level results. Membership reflects the current cohort; historical point-in-time membership is not reconstructed.
Continue with Cycle Behavior
This Performance Report answers what repeated UMT trading produced across the Nasdaq-100 cohort. For the empirical behavior of the broader Market Cycle, including how Bottoming, constructive advances, Topping, weakening, position sizing, and retests fit together, continue to BTS Universal Market Timer — Cycle Behavior.
For how to interpret and act on today’s UMT output, see the BTS Universal Market Timer — User Guide.
To compare this cohort with the other published stock studies, see all UMT Performance Reports.