BTS Universal Market Timer Performance — S&P MidCap 400
Return
10.9% vs. 10.7%
Drawdown
5.2 pp shallower
Capital
15.8 pp lower
Executive summary
Across the 364 securities with 5-year Standard results, the S&P MidCap 400 shows a modest cohort-median return advantage for the Timer alongside broad improvements in drawdown, capital deployment, volatility, and Sharpe Ratio.
The Timer had the higher Typical CAGR in 189 securities, tied in 5, and trailed in 170. It had the shallower Typical Max Drawdown in 339 of 364 securities, lower Typical Capital Deployed in all 364, lower Typical Volatility in 362, and the higher Typical Sharpe Ratio in 201. The return edge is modest but supported by slightly favorable breadth.
Universe scorecard
All five rows show cohort medians of security-level 5-year Standard Typical results. The last column is the difference of those cohort medians; it is not the median of the security-level paired differences shown in the Breadth section.
| Metric | UMT | Buy & Hold | Difference of cohort medians |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 10.9% | 10.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Max Drawdown | -48.2% | -53.4% | 5.2 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 84.2% | 100.0% | 15.8 pp lower |
| Volatility | 32.6% | 37.4% | 4.8 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.51 | 0.49 | +0.02 |
Breadth of the effect
Breadth is important evidence because cohort medians can hide concentration. Across the 364 securities with 5-year Standard results, the Timer had the higher Typical CAGR in 189, tied in 5, and trailed in 170. It had the shallower Typical Max Drawdown in 339, lower Typical Capital Deployed in all 364, lower Typical Volatility in 362, and the higher Typical Sharpe Ratio in 201. The final column reports the median paired security-level difference, so it need not match the scorecard’s difference of cohort medians.
| Metric | UMT-favorable securities | Cohort share | Median paired difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 189 of 364 | 51.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Max Drawdown | 339 of 364 | 93.1% | 3.3 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 364 of 364 | 100.0% | 15.8 pp lower |
| Volatility | 362 of 364 | 99.5% | 3.3 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 201 of 364 | 55.2% | +0.01 |
Where the Timer added the most value
Twilio had the largest 5-year Standard CAGR advantage at +23.0 percentage points and also appears among the largest drawdown improvements. Viavi Solutions led the drawdown ranking at 56.0 points shallower, followed by IES Holdings at 49.1 and SiTime at 42.1.
Largest CAGR advantages
| Ticker | Security | UMT CAGR | Buy & Hold CAGR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO | Twilio | 13.2% | -9.8% | +23.0 pp |
| CHWY | Chewy | -0.5% | -21.1% | +20.6 pp |
| MTSI | MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings | 29.3% | 11.1% | +18.2 pp |
| AM | Antero Midstream | 43.9% | 29.6% | +14.3 pp |
| MEDP | Medpace Holdings | 48.5% | 34.4% | +14.1 pp |
Largest Max Drawdown improvements
| Ticker | Security | UMT Max Drawdown | Buy & Hold Max Drawdown | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIAV | Viavi Solutions | -13.4% | -69.4% | 56.0 pp shallower |
| IESC | IES Holdings | -8.7% | -57.8% | 49.1 pp shallower |
| SITM | SiTime | -36.0% | -78.1% | 42.1 pp shallower |
| SIRI | SiriusXM Holdings | -36.8% | -73.9% | 37.1 pp shallower |
| TWLO | Twilio | -60.4% | -90.4% | 30.0 pp shallower |
Where Buy & Hold had the largest return advantage
SiTime had the largest buy-and-hold CAGR advantage in the 5-year Standard population at 18.9 percentage points, followed by XPO at 15.6, IES Holdings at 10.1, Krystal Biotech at 8.3, and e.l.f. Beauty at 7.7.
| Ticker | Security | UMT CAGR | Buy & Hold CAGR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SITM | SiTime | 23.7% | 42.6% | -18.9 pp |
| XPO | XPO | 16.6% | 32.2% | -15.6 pp |
| IESC | IES Holdings | 0.2% | 10.3% | -10.1 pp |
| KRYS | Krystal Biotech | 23.7% | 32.0% | -8.3 pp |
| ELF | e.l.f. Beauty | 37.9% | 45.6% | -7.7 pp |
How to interpret the trade-off
Aggregation matters. Cohort-median 5-year Standard Typical CAGR was 10.9% for the Timer versus 10.7% for buy-and-hold. The Timer had the higher CAGR in 189 of 364 securities, tied in 5, and trailed in 170. The defensive effect was broader: 339 had a shallower Typical Max Drawdown, all 364 had lower Typical Capital Deployed, and 362 had lower Typical Volatility.
Capital Deployed measures average daily position exposure. In each rolling window it is the arithmetic mean of daily position exposure. Typical values and cohort medians are calculated as described below. The 84.2% result should therefore not be read as “time in market,” a simple cash allocation, or proof that the Timer was out of the market 15.8% of the time.
The measured 5-year story is favorable but still a trade-off: the Timer had a modest cohort-median return edge and slightly favorable return breadth alongside broad drawdown, volatility, and capital improvements.
Limited-history results
This supplemental section covers 22 securities with valid 3-year Limited History results. Their Typical values are medians across eligible rolling 3-year periods and are not pooled with the 364-security 5-year Standard population.
| Metric | UMT | Buy & Hold | Difference of cohort medians |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 5.3% | 3.9% | +1.4 pp |
| Max Drawdown | -44.9% | -53.5% | 8.6 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 61.1% | 100.0% | 38.9 pp lower |
| Volatility | 33.1% | 49.6% | 16.5 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.33 | 0.34 | -0.01 |
| Metric | UMT-favorable securities | Cohort share | Median paired difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 12 of 22 | 54.5% | +0.6 pp |
| Max Drawdown | 21 of 22 | 95.5% | 8.9 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 22 of 22 | 100.0% | 38.9 pp lower |
| Volatility | 22 of 22 | 100.0% | 9.8 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 14 of 22 | 63.6% | +0.03 |
The 3-year Limited History cohort is favorable on four cohort-median metrics and on all five breadth medians; Sharpe is the exception at the cohort-median level, where the Timer is 0.33 versus 0.34 for buy-and-hold. This section remains separate from the primary 5-year population.
Compare UMT Results Security by Security
This report summarizes the S&P MidCap 400 cohort as a whole. For ticker-by-ticker Typical historical performance and Trade History, use the BTS Universal Market Timer interface. Available securities and cohorts depend on membership access.
How the results are calculated
Security-level Typical. Standard results use the median result across all eligible rolling 5-year periods, each spanning 60 complete calendar months and advancing one month at a time. Limited History results use the same framework over eligible rolling 3-year periods spanning 36 complete calendar months.
Universe scorecard. The primary scorecard, breadth statistics, and leader/laggard rankings use only the 364 securities with 5-year Standard results. The 22 securities with valid 3-year Limited History results are summarized separately. Thirteen additional Limited History securities without a Typical horizon and one No Result security do not enter either Typical scorecard or breadth calculation.
Matched comparison. For each security, the Timer and the buy-and-hold benchmark begin on the same backtest start, defined as the first eligible Timer BUY. Both use the same rolling-period boundaries. The buy-and-hold benchmark uses the total-return benchmark series specified in BTS Methodology.
Open positions. Open positions remain in performance at market value through June 30, 2026. Positions still open at the cutoff are excluded only from completed-trade counts.
Coverage. The current S&P MidCap 400 cohort contains 400 securities: 364 with 5-year Standard results, 22 with valid 3-year Limited History results, 13 with Limited History but no Typical result, and 1 with No Result.
Study design. This is a constituent-level study, not a backtest of an investable S&P MidCap 400 portfolio. Each security is tested independently, and cohort statistics summarize security-level results. Membership reflects the current cohort; historical point-in-time membership is not reconstructed.
Continue with Cycle Behavior
This Performance Report answers what repeated UMT trading produced across the S&P MidCap 400 cohort. For the empirical behavior of the broader Market Cycle, including how Bottoming, constructive advances, Topping, weakening, position sizing, and retests fit together, continue to BTS Universal Market Timer — Cycle Behavior.
For how to interpret and act on today’s UMT output, see the BTS Universal Market Timer — User Guide.
To compare this cohort with the other published stock studies, see all UMT Performance Reports.