BTS Heatmaps: A Standardized Seasonality System
Seven heatmaps. Eight core metrics. One standardized system for studying seasonality across major indexes, U.S. sectors, industry ETFs, country ETFs and individual stocks.
The advantage isn’t any one heatmap. It’s the family: seven market views built to the same specifications and formulas, with seven Strength Zones backtests run under the same core rules. That common design makes the full set directly comparable and turns it into one cohesive study of seasonality.
Seven heatmaps. One system.
Each heatmap covers a different part of the market: broad indexes, sectors, industries, countries or individual stocks. The research framework stays fixed.
Across the family, the same standardized BTS Weeks, eight core metrics, history controls, display conventions and cell-level detail apply. Strength Zones and Weakness Zones use the same formulas in every market universe. No heatmap receives a custom formula or rule set.
Eligibility also follows common methodology rules. A market needs complete, computable returns for BTS Weeks 1–52 across the latest three required calendar years to appear in a heatmap. Zone evaluation requires at least 10 consecutive years of complete weekly history for both the market and the S&P 500. The names that qualify can differ. The standard doesn’t.
For every eligible market, the Zone engine tests all contiguous 2- to 8-week intervals through the same qualification, ranking, selection and overlap process. Zero Zones is a valid outcome; the system doesn’t force a signal.
Keeping the lens constant makes the differences more useful. Readers can compare markets without wondering whether the tool changed between them.
Built for direct comparison
Every BTS Heatmap answers the same core questions through the same eight metrics:
- Average Return
- Median Return
- Volatility
- Return / Volatility
- Positive Week Rate
- Win Rate vs S&P 500
- Relative Return vs S&P 500
- Sample Size
The interface moves from return and consistency to volatility, relative performance and sample depth without changing the analytical frame. All Data, 10-year, 5-year and 3-year views, quarter filters, sorting and cell history let users move from a broad scan to the supporting detail.
Seven market universes, side by side
| Strategy | Universe | CAGR 2021–2025 | CAGR Full period |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTS Strength Zones Nasdaq-100 Stocks | Nasdaq-100 stocks | 52.7% | 47.1% 2003–2025 |
| BTS Strength Zones S&P-100 Stocks | S&P-100 stocks | 45.6% | 36.1% 2003–2025 |
| BTS Strength Zones Industry ETFs | Industry ETFs | 41.2% | 27.0% 2003–2025 |
| BTS Strength Zones Dow-65 Stocks | Dow-65 stocks | 40.5% | 32.0% 2003–2025 |
| BTS Strength Zones U.S. Sector ETFs | U.S. sector ETFs | 34.7% | 18.7% 2005–2025 |
| BTS Strength Zones Country ETFs | Country ETFs | 25.6% | 24.8% 2003–2025 |
| BTS Strength Zones Major Index ETFs | Major-index ETFs | 16.2% | 14.5% 2004–2025 |
The point isn’t to crown a winner. It’s to show how one standardized seasonal lens produced directly comparable evidence across different market structures.
One backtest framework
The same principle extends to the seven published Strength Zones backtests. Each applies one core portfolio framework to the Zones from its corresponding heatmap:
- A long-only, event-driven allocation model
- A common VIX 50/35 admission regime, delayed-entry rule and hold-through-zone-end exit logic
- Equal weighting, SPY or SHY fallback and event-driven rebalancing
- The same BTS Methodology for execution, costs, dividends, portfolio accounting and reporting
Market universe, available history, qualifying assets and published Zone schedules can differ. Eligibility and decision logic don’t. That separation lets readers compare outcomes without confusing market differences with rule changes.
What Makes a Backtest Reliable? explains why a stable testing environment is essential when comparing results across strategies or market universes.
The same questions, asked seven times
Every Strength Zones backtest follows the same reporting structure. Each page moves from a recent five-year view to the full available history, then examines the strategy through the same evidence layers:
- Return and risk scorecards, equity curves and drawdown profiles
- Failure modes, tradeoffs and market-capacity screens
- Monthly, annual and benchmark-regime results
- Rolling-window diagnostics, pseudocode and implementation guardrails
The result is more than a leaderboard of headline returns. Readers can compare compounding, risk, drawdowns, persistence, capacity and implementation through the same evidence structure.
Seasonality through the right lens
Taken together, the seven backtests provide evidence that seasonality can contain real, measurable structure when recurring calendar behavior is defined rigorously and tested through a consistent lens. Not every seasonal pattern matters. The framework is designed to separate potentially meaningful structure from calendar noise.
The practical opportunity is corroboration. Heatmaps and Strength Zones can sit alongside the indicators users already trust, not replace them. When independent lenses point in the same direction, the combined evidence can create a stronger signal for further research than either lens alone.
The heatmaps and Zones are research lenses; the backtests show what happens when those signals are translated into a fully specified strategy. A Signal Isn’t a Strategy explains that distinction.
That’s what BTS brings to the table: a standardized seasonal lens, transparent Zone rules and directly comparable backtests that make seasonality easier to evaluate alongside other evidence.
Different markets. Comparable evidence.
The results aren’t identical, and they shouldn’t be. Different universes produce different return paths, drawdowns, capacity constraints and rolling outcomes. Because the specifications stay fixed, those differences are more informative.
Together, the seven heatmaps and seven backtests form one cohesive cross-market study: the same tools, formulas, Zone-eligibility standards, portfolio framework and reporting structure applied across seven distinct universes. The family gives users a consistent way to see seasonality, test its substance across markets and compare it with indicators they already trust.
Explore the full family
Compare the seven BTS Heatmaps, then visit the Strategies Library to see how their published Strength Zones behaved under one common portfolio framework.