BTS Universal Market Timer Performance — Russell 3000 ex-S&P 1500
Return
4.4% vs. 4.1%
Drawdown
10.2 pp shallower
Capital
15.3 pp lower
Executive summary
Across the 933 securities with 5-year Standard results, the Russell 3000 ex-S&P 1500 cohort shows a modest cohort-median return advantage for the Timer and much larger improvements in drawdown, capital deployment, and volatility, while cohort-median Sharpe Ratio is lower.
The Timer had the higher Typical CAGR in 498 securities, tied in 30, and trailed in 405. It had the shallower Typical Max Drawdown in 861 of 933 securities, lower Typical Capital Deployed in 928, lower Typical Volatility in 930, and the higher Typical Sharpe Ratio in only 335. The defensive effect was broad, but the risk-adjusted result was mixed and generally weaker on Sharpe.
Universe scorecard
All five rows show cohort medians of security-level 5-year Standard Typical results. The last column is the difference of those cohort medians; it is not the median of the security-level paired differences shown in the Breadth section.
| Metric | UMT | Buy & Hold | Difference of cohort medians |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 4.4% | 4.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Max Drawdown | -60.1% | -70.3% | 10.2 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 84.7% | 100.0% | 15.3 pp lower |
| Volatility | 42.9% | 53.1% | 10.2 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.35 | 0.38 | -0.03 |
Breadth of the effect
Breadth is important evidence because cohort medians can hide concentration. Across the 933 securities with 5-year Standard results, the Timer had the higher Typical CAGR in 498, tied in 30, and trailed in 405. It had the shallower Typical Max Drawdown in 861, lower Typical Capital Deployed in 928, lower Typical Volatility in 930, and the higher Typical Sharpe Ratio in 335. The final column reports the median paired security-level difference, so it need not match the scorecard’s difference of cohort medians.
| Metric | UMT-favorable securities | Cohort share | Median paired difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 498 of 933 | 53.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Max Drawdown | 861 of 933 | 92.3% | 4.7 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 928 of 933 | 99.5% | 15.3 pp lower |
| Volatility | 930 of 933 | 99.7% | 6.1 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 335 of 933 | 35.9% | -0.02 |
Where the Timer added the most value
The largest 5-year Standard CAGR advantages were concentrated in a small set of securities. Tenax Therapeutics led at +71.5 percentage points, followed by Bloom Energy at +60.4 and Korro Bio at +55.5. The largest drawdown improvement was GD Culture Group at 99.8 percentage points shallower. These are security-level Typical comparisons, not explanations of why the gaps occurred.
Largest CAGR advantages
| Ticker | Security | UMT CAGR | Buy & Hold CAGR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TENX | Tenax Therapeutics | 3.7% | -67.8% | +71.5 pp |
| BE | Bloom Energy | 92.6% | 32.2% | +60.4 pp |
| KRRO | Korro Bio | 3.9% | -51.6% | +55.5 pp |
| ACHV | Achieve Life Sciences | -2.1% | -54.8% | +52.7 pp |
| AVTX | Avalo Therapeutics | -24.7% | -73.5% | +48.8 pp |
| WATT | Energous | -6.3% | -55.1% | +48.8 pp |
The fifth-place cutoff is a tie at +48.8 percentage points, so both Avalo Therapeutics and Energous are shown.
Largest Max Drawdown improvements
| Ticker | Security | UMT Max Drawdown | Buy & Hold Max Drawdown | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDC | GD Culture Group | 0.0% | -99.8% | 99.8 pp shallower |
| ARMP | Armata Pharmaceuticals | 0.0% | -94.1% | 94.1 pp shallower |
| SVRA | Savara | -1.4% | -95.3% | 93.9 pp shallower |
| POWW | Outdoor Holding | 0.0% | -92.0% | 92.0 pp shallower |
| UAMY | United States Antimony | 0.0% | -88.8% | 88.8 pp shallower |
Where Buy & Hold had the largest return advantage
CPI Card Group had the largest buy-and-hold CAGR advantage in the 5-year Standard population at 27.1 percentage points, followed by Mama’s Creations at 25.8 and Trevi Therapeutics at 22.2. J.Jill and B. Riley Financial rounded out the largest return gaps at 21.7 and 20.7 points.
| Ticker | Security | UMT CAGR | Buy & Hold CAGR | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMTS | CPI Card Group | 19.1% | 46.2% | -27.1 pp |
| MAMA | Mama’s Creations | 8.8% | 34.6% | -25.8 pp |
| TRVI | Trevi Therapeutics | 14.5% | 36.7% | -22.2 pp |
| JILL | J.Jill | 7.2% | 28.9% | -21.7 pp |
| RILY | B. Riley Financial | 1.6% | 22.3% | -20.7 pp |
How to interpret the trade-off
Aggregation matters. Cohort-median 5-year Standard Typical CAGR was 4.4% for the Timer versus 4.1% for buy-and-hold, and 498 of 933 securities had a higher Timer CAGR, with 30 ties and 405 lower results. The defensive effect was broader: 861 had a shallower Typical Max Drawdown, 928 had lower Typical Capital Deployed, and 930 had lower Typical Volatility.
Capital Deployed measures average daily position exposure. In each rolling window it is the arithmetic mean of daily position exposure. Typical values and cohort medians are calculated as described below. The 84.7% result should therefore not be read as “time in market,” a simple cash allocation, or proof that the Timer was out of the market 15.3% of the time.
The measured 5-year story is a trade-off: the Timer had a modest return edge and broad drawdown, capital, and volatility improvement, but cohort-median Sharpe was lower and only 35.9% of securities had a higher Timer Sharpe.
Limited-history results
This supplemental section covers the 298 securities with 3-year Limited History results. Their Typical results are medians across eligible rolling 3-year periods and are not pooled with the 933-security 5-year Standard population.
| Metric | UMT | Buy & Hold | Difference of cohort medians |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 5.3% | 0.5% | +4.8 pp |
| Max Drawdown | -57.9% | -73.8% | 15.9 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 62.2% | 100.0% | 37.8 pp lower |
| Volatility | 49.6% | 78.5% | 28.9 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.40 | 0.39 | +0.01 |
| Metric | UMT-favorable securities | Cohort share | Median paired difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 175 of 298 | 58.7% | +2.6 pp |
| Max Drawdown | 290 of 298 | 97.3% | 11.1 pp shallower |
| Capital Deployed | 297 of 298 | 99.7% | 37.8 pp lower |
| Volatility | 297 of 298 | 99.7% | 20.4 pp lower |
| Sharpe Ratio | 108 of 298 | 36.2% | -0.03 |
The 3-year Limited History cohort shows a stronger cohort-median return advantage and very broad drawdown, capital, and volatility improvement. Sharpe again diverges by aggregation: the difference of cohort medians is +0.01, but only 36.2% of securities have a higher Timer Sharpe and the median paired difference is -0.03. This section is supplemental and is not pooled with the 5-year Standard population.
Compare UMT Results Security by Security
This report summarizes the current Russell 3000 ex-S&P 1500 security cohort as a whole. For ticker-by-ticker Typical historical performance and Trade History, use the BTS Universal Market Timer interface. Available securities and cohorts depend on membership access.
How the results are calculated
Security-level Typical. Standard results use the median result across all eligible rolling 5-year periods, each spanning 60 complete calendar months and advancing one month at a time. Limited History results use the same framework over eligible rolling 3-year periods spanning 36 complete calendar months.
Universe scorecard. The primary scorecard and Breadth section use only the 933 securities with 5-year Standard results. The 298 securities with 3-year Limited History results are summarized separately. The 125 Limited History securities without a Typical horizon and 115 No Result securities do not enter either Typical scorecard or breadth calculation.
Matched comparison. For each security, the Timer and the buy-and-hold benchmark begin on the same backtest start, defined as the first eligible Timer BUY. Both use the same rolling-period boundaries. The buy-and-hold benchmark uses the total-return benchmark series specified in BTS Methodology.
Open positions. Open positions remain in performance at market value through June 30, 2026. Positions still open at the cutoff are excluded only from completed-trade counts.
Coverage. This page uses the 1,471 securities in the current Russell 3000 that are outside the current S&P Composite 1500. It is not a definition of all U.S. stocks outside the S&P 1500. The four status populations shown at the top reconcile to the cohort total.
Study design. This is a constituent/security-level study, not a backtest of an investable Russell 3000 ex-S&P 1500 portfolio. Each security is tested independently, and cohort statistics summarize security-level results. Membership reflects the current Russell 3000 and S&P Composite 1500 cohorts; historical point-in-time membership is not reconstructed.
Continue with Cycle Behavior
This Performance Report answers what repeated UMT trading produced across the current Russell 3000 ex-S&P 1500 security cohort. For the empirical behavior of the broader Market Cycle, including how Bottoming, constructive advances, Topping, weakening, position sizing, and retests fit together, continue to BTS Universal Market Timer — Cycle Behavior.
For how to interpret and act on today’s UMT output, see the BTS Universal Market Timer — User Guide.
To compare this cohort with the other published stock studies, see all UMT Performance Reports.