BTS Universal Market Timer Performance: Dow Industrials
The BTS Universal Market Timer is designed to preserve as much of buy-and-hold compounding as possible while reducing volatility, drawdown depth and capital deployment.
Return
11.9% vs. 12.1%
Drawdown
4.9 pp shallower
Capital
19.8 pp less
Executive summary
In this DJIA cohort, the Timer nearly matched buy-and-hold’s long-term return while delivering defensive improvement across all 30 constituents.
The defensive improvement was universal across the cohort. The Timer delivered a shallower max drawdown, lower capital deployed, and lower volatility in all 30 constituents. It produced the higher CAGR in 8 of 30. The defining result is the consistency of the defensive improvement while universe-median returns remained nearly identical.
Universe scorecard
| Metric | BTS Timer | Buy & Hold | vs Buy & Hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 11.9% | 12.1% | -0.2 pp |
| Max Drawdown | -34.1% | -39.0% | 4.9 pp less |
| Capital Deployed | 80.2% | 100.0% | 19.8 pp less |
| Volatility | 25.9% | 28.9% | 3.0 pp less |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.62 | 0.56 | +0.06 |
Breadth of the effect
The defensive effect extended across the entire cohort. All 30 constituents had shallower max drawdown, lower capital deployed, and lower volatility with the BTS Market Timer. It also produced the higher CAGR in 8 of 30 constituents, while universe-median return nearly matched buy-and-hold at 11.9% versus 12.1%. Buy-and-hold led 22 individual constituents on CAGR, so the return result was more mixed than the defensive result. That combination maps directly to the performance side of the BTS Market Timer’s design objective: preserve long-term compounding while reducing drawdown, volatility, and capital exposure.
| Metric | BTS advantage | Share of cohort | Median vs Buy & Hold |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 8 of 30 | 26.7% | -1.2 pp |
| Max Drawdown | 30 of 30 | 100.0% | 3.0 pp less |
| Capital Deployed | 30 of 30 | 100.0% | 19.8 pp less |
| Volatility | 30 of 30 | 100.0% | 2.5 pp less |
| Sharpe Ratio | 18 of 30 | 60.0% | +0.02 |
Where the BTS Market Timer added the most value
Some of the strongest outcomes appeared across both return and drawdown. NVIDIA, Microsoft, and IBM rank in the top five for both CAGR advantage and max drawdown improvement. For those three stocks, both sides of the design objective showed up at once: higher CAGR alongside one of the largest drawdown improvements in the cohort.
Largest CAGR advantages
| Stock | Company | BTS Timer | Buy & Hold | vs Buy & Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 32.1% | 28.8% | +3.3 pp |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 22.4% | 19.7% | +2.7 pp |
| AMGN | Amgen | 14.5% | 12.2% | +2.3 pp |
| IBM | International Business Machines | 9.8% | 8.4% | +1.4 pp |
| AXP | American Express | 13.1% | 11.9% | +1.2 pp |
Largest max drawdown improvements
| Stock | Company | BTS Timer | Buy & Hold | vs Buy & Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Microsoft | -24.3% | -37.1% | 12.8 pp less |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | -56.0% | -66.3% | 10.3 pp less |
| AAPL | Apple | -40.8% | -49.8% | 9.0 pp less |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems | -41.4% | -49.8% | 8.4 pp less |
| IBM | International Business Machines | -32.6% | -40.6% | 8.0 pp less |
Where Buy & Hold had the largest return advantage
Buy-and-hold had its largest CAGR advantages in Amazon, Visa, and UnitedHealth Group. Across the five largest differences, its advantage ranged from 2.9 to 8.3 percentage points. These names show the cost side of the defensive objective: reducing unfavorable exposure can also mean participating less fully in upside when buy-and-hold compounds more strongly.
| Stock | Company | BTS Timer CAGR | Buy & Hold CAGR | vs Buy & Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon | 19.7% | 28.0% | -8.3 pp |
| V | Visa | 17.3% | 23.8% | -6.5 pp |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group | 16.8% | 22.2% | -5.4 pp |
| AAPL | Apple | 21.9% | 25.5% | -3.6 pp |
| NKE | NIKE | 13.3% | 16.2% | -2.9 pp |
How to interpret the trade-off
Return preservation was the stronger cohort-level result. The BTS Market Timer nearly matched universe-median CAGR at 11.9% versus 12.1% while delivering shallower max drawdown, lower capital deployed, and lower volatility in all 30 constituents. Buy-and-hold had the higher CAGR in 22 individual stocks, so return outperformance was not widespread. In this DJIA cohort, the design objective was expressed primarily through return preservation and broad risk reduction.
Capital exposure can remain substantial. Under normal strategy rules, the BTS Market Timer is designed not to sell a position at a loss. That can extend holding periods and keep capital committed longer when a stock weakens. This helps explain why median capital deployed in this cohort remained substantial even though it was lower than buy-and-hold.
Forced non-Natural events, such as delisting liquidation, are separate exceptions.
How the results are calculated
Stock-level Typical. For each stock, Typical is the median result across all eligible rolling 5-year periods. Each period spans 60 complete calendar months and advances one month at a time.
Universe scorecard. The scorecard reports the median of those stock-level Typical results across the 30 constituents.
Matched comparison. For each stock, the BTS Market Timer and the buy-and-hold benchmark use the same start date and the same rolling-period boundaries. The buy-and-hold benchmark uses the total-return benchmark series specified in BTS Methodology, including dividends. For why this matched benchmark is the relevant comparison, see How to Choose the Right Benchmark.
Open positions. Open positions remain in performance at market value through June 30, 2026. Only completed-trade counts exclude positions still open at the cutoff.
Study design. This is a constituent-level study, not a backtest of an investable Dow Jones Industrial Average portfolio. Each stock is tested independently. Universe statistics summarize stock-level results using current DJIA constituents. Historical index membership is not reconstructed.
Trade activity context
Trade activity is secondary context. Performance results are calculated from daily account values, not by averaging completed trades.
| Measure | DJIA |
|---|---|
| Completed trades analyzed | 3,233 |
| Stocks with at least one completed trade | 30 of 30 |
| Median completed trades per stock | 106.5 |
| Median completed-trade duration | 12 daily bars |
| Median starting Position Size | 100.0% |
| Trades starting at 100.0% Position Size | 72.6% |
| Trades starting at 50.0% Position Size | 27.4% |
Related BTS Universal Market Timer research
- What is the BTS Universal Market Timer?
- BTS Universal Market Timer: User Guide
- BTS Universal Market Timer: Turning-Point Accuracy
- BTS Universal Market Timer Performance: Nasdaq-100
- BTS Universal Market Timer Performance: S&P 500
- BTS Universal Market Timer Performance: S&P MidCap 400
- BTS Universal Market Timer Performance: S&P SmallCap 600
Appendix A: constituent return and drawdown results
| Ticker | Company | Start | CAGR | Max DD | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTS | B&H | BTS | B&H | |||
| AAPL | Apple | 1991-07-01 | 21.9% | 25.5% | -40.8% | -49.8% |
| AMGN | Amgen | 1991-07-01 | 14.5% | 12.2% | -31.5% | -32.8% |
| AMZN | Amazon | 1998-11-25 | 19.7% | 28.0% | -53.3% | -56.1% |
| AXP | American Express | 1991-07-01 | 13.1% | 11.9% | -44.7% | -45.4% |
| BA | Boeing | 1991-07-01 | 7.0% | 9.0% | -55.1% | -57.0% |
| CAT | Caterpillar | 1991-07-01 | 11.1% | 13.7% | -39.7% | -43.4% |
| CRM | Salesforce | 2005-12-20 | 20.5% | 21.5% | -34.2% | -38.8% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems | 1991-08-16 | 9.4% | 9.9% | -41.4% | -49.8% |
| CVX | Chevron | 1991-07-01 | 9.0% | 10.8% | -30.8% | -33.6% |
| DIS | Walt Disney | 1991-07-01 | 9.2% | 9.4% | -44.3% | -44.3% |
| GOOGL | Alphabet | 2006-03-07 | 19.6% | 19.9% | -26.7% | -30.9% |
| GS | Goldman Sachs | 2000-11-21 | 8.6% | 9.8% | -46.4% | -48.7% |
| HD | Home Depot | 1991-07-01 | 13.5% | 15.9% | -31.9% | -38.0% |
| HON | Honeywell | 1991-07-01 | 11.9% | 11.0% | -42.3% | -43.0% |
| IBM | International Business Machines | 1991-07-01 | 9.8% | 8.4% | -32.6% | -40.6% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | 1991-07-01 | 8.8% | 9.9% | -21.3% | -27.4% |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase | 1991-07-01 | 11.9% | 12.5% | -43.3% | -43.6% |
| KO | Coca-Cola | 1991-07-01 | 8.8% | 8.6% | -34.0% | -37.0% |
| MCD | McDonald’s | 1991-07-01 | 13.5% | 14.4% | -20.7% | -21.4% |
| MMM | 3M | 1991-07-01 | 7.9% | 9.4% | -28.6% | -32.2% |
| MRK | Merck | 1991-07-01 | 7.6% | 10.0% | -29.4% | -36.5% |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 1991-07-01 | 22.4% | 19.7% | -24.3% | -37.1% |
| NKE | NIKE | 1991-07-01 | 13.3% | 16.2% | -40.1% | -44.1% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 2000-07-25 | 32.1% | 28.8% | -56.0% | -66.3% |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | 1991-07-01 | 10.6% | 9.9% | -24.1% | -25.5% |
| SHW | Sherwin-Williams | 1991-07-01 | 15.1% | 16.5% | -30.4% | -33.3% |
| TRV | Travelers Companies | 1991-07-01 | 8.2% | 10.6% | -42.5% | -44.3% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group | 1991-07-01 | 16.8% | 22.2% | -39.2% | -39.2% |
| V | Visa | 2009-09-28 | 17.3% | 23.8% | -25.9% | -28.6% |
| WMT | Walmart | 1991-07-01 | 8.2% | 9.5% | -26.6% | -29.7% |
Appendix B: constituent capital, volatility, and Sharpe ratio results
Buy-and-hold capital deployed is 100% by construction and is omitted from the table.
| Ticker | BTS Capital | Volatility | Sharpe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTS | B&H | BTS | B&H | ||
| AAPL | 73.3% | 33.9% | 38.5% | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| AMGN | 84.3% | 26.9% | 29.1% | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| AMZN | 82.2% | 35.1% | 35.9% | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| AXP | 80.2% | 30.2% | 33.8% | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| BA | 88.7% | 31.6% | 33.4% | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| CAT | 87.7% | 29.5% | 31.4% | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| CRM | 79.6% | 30.8% | 37.5% | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| CSCO | 72.4% | 24.9% | 33.6% | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| CVX | 85.9% | 23.2% | 25.2% | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| DIS | 87.3% | 29.2% | 30.1% | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| GOOGL | 78.2% | 25.3% | 27.0% | 0.96 | 0.79 |
| GS | 90.0% | 28.7% | 31.3% | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| HD | 76.4% | 24.4% | 28.7% | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| HON | 81.4% | 25.8% | 27.2% | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| IBM | 74.3% | 21.9% | 25.7% | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| JNJ | 78.6% | 18.1% | 19.8% | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| JPM | 79.3% | 29.1% | 31.9% | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| KO | 82.4% | 17.3% | 20.9% | 0.62 | 0.54 |
| MCD | 78.6% | 21.3% | 23.1% | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| MMM | 82.7% | 22.3% | 24.8% | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| MRK | 78.7% | 21.1% | 26.0% | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| MSFT | 75.4% | 26.3% | 30.7% | 1.03 | 0.81 |
| NKE | 83.1% | 28.1% | 31.3% | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| NVDA | 92.8% | 44.1% | 52.1% | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| PG | 77.8% | 18.8% | 20.4% | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| SHW | 79.6% | 25.5% | 27.2% | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| TRV | 87.0% | 26.0% | 27.2% | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| UNH | 80.1% | 27.1% | 29.9% | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| V | 72.4% | 21.4% | 24.7% | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| WMT | 81.0% | 21.0% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 0.55 |